A black swan is supposed to be something you've never thought of before, something you never imagined possible, or even thought to imagine. So I wouldn't call a Tether crash a black swan, and we've seen an 85% drawndown in Bitcoin already, so that doesn't qualify either.
One thing to remember is that all this other stuff--stable coins, defi, web3, etc. are highly experimental and risky. If Bitcoin is subject 85% drawdowns that other stuff, well, what can you say. Most of it is going to wash out and this may be the moment it happens.
It is clear Bitcoin is going to get regulated. This is both good and bad. Regulations can be very troublesome and Bitcoin was created in large part to get away from the tender mercies of government.
Bitcoin's greatest strength is in the inability to make any more of it and the inability of government to confiscate it. But it can be blocked. Not all Bitcoins are created equal.
Because Bitcoin can be traced, funds can be marked as tainted. For example, if you run Bitcoin through a service meant to obscure your money's history, some of the exchanges can detect this and refuse to take your coins. This can happen to you even if you didn't try and wash the coins. If someone gives you tainted coins, now YOU have the problem of getting rid of them.
This leads to a good money - bad money situation familiar to people who have spent time in some third world countries. People won't take bills with little rips or tears in them, or that are too dirty. The bank may, but people won't. They won't take them because OTHER people won't take them and they don't want the problem. So you are forced to play this game, too. It's stupid, but you musn't take bad bills or you will have to negotiate with the next person you pay, and maybe only get 90% of the value or even less.
This may be Bitcoin's fate and fatal weakness. If this kind of good money bad money dynamic starts up, Bitcoin is screwed. This is where the privacy coins come in. Privacy coins have untraceable history and therefore can't be discriminated against. (insert shameless Monero plug here)
So. Bitcoin and other solid coins with simple missions like acting as money and nothing else will survive the great stablecoin meltdown, WHICH IS THEIR PURPOSE. These coins may fluctuate wildly in value at the moment, but widespread adoption will stabilize their price. In the meantime, you will never wake to find the bank or the government took all your Bitcoin as long as you hold your own keys. These coins are your shelter in the storm.
Avoid leverage, avoid centralized coins, be conservative, and be careful. Good luck out there.
