An excellent article.

I normally disagree with much of what you say, but you are 100% correct about the dangers of nuclear war and the danger of getting sucked into this one and having it end in a nuclear exchange. Younger generations did not grow up with the fear of nuclear war like my generation did, and they are far too sanguine about the possibility. It is the end, the destroyer of civilization and maybe humanity.

The war hawks in the Biden administration are largely responsible for getting this war started, and it has been a terrible mistake. President Obama warned clearly that America should not press forward in Ukraine because Ukraine is an existential issue for Russia, but it is not existential for us.

Existential for this administration, perhaps, but not America, and not the rest of the West. Obama called it escalatory dominance, meaning that Russia is willing to go to the wall over Ukraine, even to the point of nuclear war, and we are not.

Inevitably we would flinch away, just like the Soviet Union did in the Cuban missile crisis. And that is indeed what has happened. We flinch away from sending troops to directly to aid Ukraine, and we flinch from sending the kinds of weapon systems that may make a difference because we're afraid of escalating too far. If we do these things, we could have a nuclear war. And if we don't do them, Ukraine will lose.

This is why the foolish behavior of the war hawks has been so disastrous. They refused to negotiate in good faith before the war started, and they KNEW Russia would go to war over that. They also knew, or should have known that Ukraine would lose the war.

There is not much time left to negotiate. It may still be possible to end the war and keep Ukraine as an independent state. Perhaps Ukraine could retain Odessa. And most important, there are a LOT of lives which could be saved by good faith negotiation starting right now.

But it is also hard to imagine the Victoria Nulands and Jake Sullivans swallowing hard, reversing position, and supporting peace talks. They are the exact wrong people for the job. Presidential elections are far away, and the danger is very near.