Only time will tell. Remain skeptical of all information you get and always leave open the possibility that you or your sources could be wrong. There's no other way to approach this.

What's particularly interesting to me is following how world leaders behave. Figuring out whether a statement is made to keep the home team happy, or is it made in earnest?

Which of the many mini acts of war coming out of the West will Russia tolerate, and which ones will Russia react to, or warn sternly against? And which actions is Russia refraining from?

How quickly, if ever, can things return to normal after the fighting stops?

Also, be on the lookout for treachery. Watch Poland and Hungary's behavior. They have a historical interest in parcels of land on their border with Ukraine. "Helpful" behavior may be anything but.

Particularly watch Turkey. Turkey is like House Frey in Game of Thrones. They're the country in the middle, half European and half Asian. They're NATO, but they're buying the Russian S400 system. They play both sides against the middle and always have.

Initially, Turkey (Erdogan and his allies, really) refused Sweden and Finland and presented a list of essentially impossible demands to allow them entry into NATO. Did he do that just to bargain, or does he mean it? I kind of think he means it, which will leave Sweden and Finland high and dry after showing all their cards.

Anyway, I am fully aware of how tragic the war is and how awful the suffering, but it is fascinating nonetheless. My best assessment is that Ukraine is going to crack and the sanctions are going to backfire. Russia has been preparing for this war for 8 years, and they have caught Europe by surprise.

As a matter of fact, Europe kind of sanctioned themselves, and if they aren't careful, Russia will deliver the ultimate sanction and cut off the gas. This round goes to Russia. I only hope the collective West gets its act together and maintains more careful and wiser policies in the future.