"The enemy always has problems of his own that you are not aware of" --Patton (paraphrased)

Yes. Russia took an enormous calculated risk in invading Ukraine. Resistance was clearly more fierce and determined than they expected, maybe much more so. Nevertheless, they are winning.

Russia prepared hard for this war, which is why they are so resilient in the face of the sanctions. The NATO countries were not prepared, which is why we can see they cannot survive without Russian gas. It will be a long time before they can counterattack effectively if they choose to do so.

We can see that Russia is also in no position to take on all of Europe by invading it. I really believe they want what they said they want and that's about it. My personal and entirely non-expert opinion is that Russia will seize and keep the southern cities and the black sea coast and call it a victory unless NATO enters the war.

If NATO enters the war, better start digging out your bomb shelter. There are reports that Poland is itching to join the fight and has amassed troops on the western Ukrainian border. They may enter the war without NATO sanction. If this happens, God save them, and God save us all.

As for who has been doing all the provoking, I lay the blame mostly at America's feet. That's what America does these days. They drive ships through the Taiwan strait and build armies on Russia's doorstep. The neocons are to blame for this reckless policy and they only seem to know how to escalate.

This war is DANGEROUS and we need to change leadership and help put an end to it before it expands and puts an end to everything.