The political science school of thought known as Realism, currently well represented by Professor John Mearcheimer of the University of Chicago is the best lens with which to view and understand this conflict.
Mearsheimer has given a lot of lectures on Ukraine stretching well back before the 2014 coup. His main thesis is that Russia is a paranoid great power, just America and China, and when other powers begin to take actions they think endangers their national security, they can react violently and ruthlessly.
Russia views matters in Ukraine as existential to Russia's security for pretty obvious geographical and historical reasons. As NATO began creeping eastward, Russia grew increasingly nervous and warned repeatedly that they would not tolerate a NATO presence in Ukraine.
Treaties were signed, promises were made, but NATO (read: America) ignored the agreements and ignored the warnings, pressing ahead with training troops in Ukraine and arming them. It would be like China training troops in Mexico. Intolerable.
After years of preparations and warnings, Russia finally moved its army to the border and again delivered their demands: NATO out of Ukraine, recognition that Crimea belongs to Russia, and independence for Donetsk and Lugansk. The neocons in the Biden admin thumbed their noses at Russia and essentially encouraged them to attack, and that's how the war got started.
Personally, I think characters like Nuland wanted the war. The neocons are true Russophobes and resisted Trump's efforts are rapproachment with Russia. Now that they have their war, there will NEVER be a rapproachment with Russia (hooray! success!) and perhaps Russia will be weakened by the fight in Ukraine and destroyed by the sanctions.
But it is not playing out that way. Ukraine is losing and cannot be saved, and the sanctions have backfired. Rather than destroying the Russian currency, the sanctions have strengthened it! And now Europe's economy is tanking. This winter, when the Russians cut off the gas will be catastrophic for Europe.
The time is fast approaching when Europe will toss out the weak leaders who led them into this disaster, and I believe our own leadership is due for a change, too. Blame for this prideful and monumental fuckup must be firmly affixed to the Biden admin and the neocons calling the shots there, and negotiations must begin to save Ukraine while there is anything left to save at all.
The big question is how? The Biden admin cannot accept a humiliating defeat in Ukraine and may never sit down at the table in good faith, not until Russia wins a complete military victory. The complete and unstoppable destruction of Ukraine is a highly likely endpoint scenario.
