We can quibble over how well organized the Russian withdrawal from Karkhiv region was. The reason Ukraine and her supporters want to call that withdrawal a great military victory is because they badly needed a victory for psychological reasons, and in this regard they have been successful.

Perhaps the Ukrainian advance forced the Russians to leave early and lose equipment, but there wasn't a lot of fighting on the ground, so that tells you there was some organization to it.

I'm convinced it's the Ukrainians shelling that power plant. No matter how hard someone tries to convince me the Russians were shelling a nuke plant they controlled, I'm just not buying it. They were free to shut it down or blow it with explosives if they wanted and they would have succeeded since nothing could stop them. It was Ukraine.

I don't think Ukraine is going to negotiate while they have Western backing. They still think they can win, there's still money and weapons coming in, and they're desperate and pissed off. Negotiation would be wiser, but they're probably not going to do that.

Putin is not going to back down, either. Losing the war would be the end of him, so he'll escalate until he wins or he gets what he wants at the table.

Escalation from this point would be very ugly. If he decides to call it war, or labels the Ukrainian government "terrorist" (this seems to be important to the Russians) then he can take more serious actions. If it is "war" then he'll put the lights out in the major cities and wreck the water and sewage.

Gas will be cut off to Ukraine and all of Europe, and General Winter will begin his grim work.