You drill down into the details much further than I would ever go. I don't get into the details to that level because I don't think they will help me foresee the future--there's too much uncertainty and the situation is constantly changing.
I can see you've taken heart from the Russian withdrawal from the territory they occupied near Karkhiv. However it seems likely to me it was a planned withdrawal since the Russians and the Donbas forces withdrew in relatively good order with very little fighting. The Ukrainian army moved into the vacuum.
That withdrawal probably made military sense, but it was a political defeat for Russia. The government came under withering criticism from their own blogosphere with some characters screaming that Putin was both incompetent and a traitor to Russia. And it gave Ukraine and her Western backers a much needed victory and hope.
The Russians have fallen back to more defensible lines and will now probably fight any further Ukrainian advances. This is the best moment Ukraine has had since the war began to return to the table and negotiate a peace in earnest. I hope they don't squander it.
My overall view remains the same: The stronger side (both economically and militarily) usually wins. Russia has been fighting this war with one arm behind its back. They have not mobilized and called for a general draft yet. If they begin to actually lose, that other arm will come out and they'll get serious.
And that's the sort of escalation we should all fear. Already both sides are growing nastier. Russia just destroyed that dam on the Inguletz river, and Ukraine's insane shelling of the nuke plant speaks for itself. Who knows how bad they'll both get before this is all over?
On the home front this war is beginning to bite. Europe has a very serious energy crisis and is about to be plunged into poverty they haven't seen since WW2. Is it really so hard to discuss peace?
The deal the Russians were demanding at the start of the war doesn't seem so bad, now. Let the Donbas go--they don't want to be part of Ukraine and have taken up arms to be free of it. Crimea is lost forever. Ukraine can still take the deal and retain Odessa and Karkhiv, and most importantly the fighting and dying can stop.
In more cold blooded terms, Ukraine should only keep fighting if it thinks it can improve it's position at the table. It just improved its position. Does it truly believe it will go on winning victories that will further improve the terms at the table?
I think it is taking a hell of a gamble if it continues.
